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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the award. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or merely the greatest upset.

However this year's field is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent underperformers ascending collectively. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing several other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still