Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
