Back in 2018, a mere eight words to electrify a Labour conference demonstrating the party was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding remain as an option". Context, however, is key.
In that darkly divisive time of 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.
The Shift in Position & Closed Debates
In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if polling evidence suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.
A Lid That Rattles on Europe
Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, a lid which was tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen once more.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.
And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.
Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas
Rachel Reeves is among those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people allowing youths can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.
David Lammy has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.
Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to declaring the commencement of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.
Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism
However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he regards as signature achievements of his government.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.
- First, he believes a customs pact has been made much harder as ministers are actively diverging from European rules in numerous policy areas, like environmental standards.
- Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure of negotiations has convinced British officials that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.
A Bizarre Strategy and Geopolitical Considerations
This strange and concerning American strategy paper claims Europe faces cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It contains a single mention of the UK, found on a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.
However, instead of deciding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by risking precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Leadership Speculation and The Ghost from the Past
This situation brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not a pitch to become leader but merely an attempt to preserve the “option” of remain in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.
But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand for the leadership, is among a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.
Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance regarding a customs pact as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Obvious Danger & A Wise Reminder
The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.
It would be wise of him to recall the impact that a short phrase had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, before someone else adopt them as their own.
